Tami Savage, Realtor

Your Key to a New Lifestyle

  • Search for Homes
  • Blog
  • About
  • Contact
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

The Main Key To Understanding the Rise in Mortgage Rates

October 5, 2021 By Tami Savage

The Main Key To Understanding the Rise in Mortgage Rates

Every Thursday, Freddie Mac releases the results of their Primary Mortgage Market Survey which reveals the most recent movement in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Last week, the rate was announced as 3.01%. It was the first time in three months that the mortgage rate surpassed 3%. In a press release accompanying the survey, Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:

“Mortgage rates rose across all loan types this week as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest point since June.”

The reason Khater mentions the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is because there has been a very strong relationship between the yield and the 30-year mortgage rate over the last five decades. Here’s a graph showing that relationship:

For almost 50 years, the 30-year mortgage rate has moved in unison with the 10-year treasury rate.  Source: Freddie Mac, Macrotrends

The relationship has also been consistent throughout 2021 as evidenced by this graph:

The 2021 Relationship Between Mortgage Treasurey Rates Remains Consistent.  Source: Freddie Mac, Macrotrends

The graph also reveals the most recent jump in mortgage rates was preceded by a jump in the 10-year Treasury rate (called out by the red circles).

So, What Impacts the Yield Rate?

According to Investopedia:

“There are a number of economic factors that impact Treasury yields, such as interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.”

Since there are currently concerns about inflation and economic growth due to the pandemic, the Treasury yield spiked last week. That spike impacted mortgage rates.

What Does This Mean for You?

Khater, in the Freddie Mac release mentioned above, says:

“We expect mortgage rates to continue to rise modestly which will likely have an impact on home prices, causing them to moderate slightly after increasing over the last year.”

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), also addresses the issue:

“Consumers shouldn’t panic. Keep in mind that even though rates will increase in the following months, these rates will still be historically low. The National Association of REALTORS forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to reach 3.5% by mid-2022.”

Bottom Line

Forecasting mortgage rates is very difficult. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, once quipped:

“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

That being said, if you’re either a first-time homebuyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your current needs, keep abreast of what’s happening with mortgage rates. It may very well impact your decision.

Tagged With: First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Housing Market Updates, Interest Rates, Move-Up Buyers

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Buying a Home. Send me this eGuide.

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Selling Your House. Send me this eGuide.

A Guide to Buying Your First Home. Send me this eGuide.

Tags

Baby Boomers Buying Myths Community Demographics Distressed Properties Down Payments Events First Time Home Buyers Forbearances For Buyers Foreclosures For Sale By Owners For Sellers FSBOs Generation X Generation Z Gen X Gen Z Holidays Home Design Home Trends Housing Market Updates Infographics Interest Rates Interview Investors Lifestyle Luxury Market Millennials Move-Up Buyers moving New Construction Pricing relocation Remodel Rent vs Buy Report Reviews Selling Myths Senior Market Short Sales SOLD Tax Refund Veterans Video

About Me

I help homeowners sell their existing home and shift into a home more suitable to their needs in the North Metro Atlanta area (specifically around Cumming, Canton, & Milton). Read More…

Let’s Connect

770-744-2524‬ or
(888) 959-9461 x2543

Digitial Business Card

 

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

Calculate Mortgage Payments

Below is a mortgage calculator you may use to help give you an estimate on your monthly payment and other details.

Once calculated, next to the monthly payment on the far right is a small graphic you can click on to see the payment schedule.

Calculate Mortgage Payments

www.mlcalc.com
Copyright © 2019+ Tami Savage LLC. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy

DISCLAIMER: The information contained, and the opinions expressed, on this site are NOT intended to be construed as legal or financial advice. Tami Savage does NOT guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as legal or financial advice. You should ALWAYS conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. Tami Savage will NOT be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.