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What Experts Project for Home Prices Over the Next 5 Years

September 12, 2023 By Tami Savage

What Experts Project for Home Prices Over the Next 5 Years

If you're planning to buy a home, one thing to consider is what experts project home prices will do in the future and how that might affect your investment. While you may have seen negative news over the past year about home prices, they’re doing far better than expected and are rising across the country. And data shows, experts forecast home prices will keep appreciating.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

Pulsenomics polled over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts in the latest quarterly Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES). The results show what the panelists project will happen with home prices over the next five years. Here are those expert forecasts saying home prices will go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

Estmated Home Price Performance

If you’re someone who was worried home prices would fall because of stories you’ve read online, here's the big takeaway. Even though home prices vary by local market, experts project prices will continue to rise across the country for years to come. And these numbers indicate the return to more normal home price appreciation.

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, it’s important to recognize home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct, after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it’ll appreciate by another 2.17% next year. This is a good example of why owning a home is a choice that wins big over time.

What Does This Mean for You?

Once you buy a home, price appreciation raises your home’s value, and that grows your household wealth. To see how a typical home's value could change in the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES, check out the graph below:

$72,363 Potential growth in household wealth over the next 5 years based solely on increased home equity if you purchased a $400k home in January 2023

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

So, if you're thinking about whether buying a home is a good choice, remember how it can be a powerful way to grow your wealth in the long run. 

Bottom Line

According to the experts, home prices are expected to grow over the next five years at a more normal pace. If you’re ready to become a homeowner, know that buying today can set you up for long-term success as home values (and your own net worth) grow. Let’s connect to start the homebuying process today.

Tagged With: Buying Myths, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Housing Market Updates, Move-Up Buyers

Get Ready for Smaller, More Affordable Homes

September 7, 2023 By Tami Savage

Get Ready for Smaller, More Affordable Homes

Have you been trying to buy a home, but higher mortgage rates and home prices are limiting your options? If so, here’s some good news – based on what Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, has to say – smaller, more affordable homes are on the way:

“Buyers should expect that over the next 12 to 24 months there will be a notable increase in the number of entry-level homes available.”

In some ways, smaller homes are already here. When the pandemic hit, the meaning of home changed. People needed the space their home provided not only as a place to live, but as a place to work, go to school, exercise, and more. Those who had that space were more likely to keep it. And those that didn’t were in a position where they were trying to sell their smaller house to move up to a larger one. That meant the homes coming to the market during the pandemic were smaller than those on the market before the pandemic – and that trend continues today (see graph below):

Home Size Smaller than Pre-Pandemic

This graph also shows how the size of homes on the market changes seasonally. Larger homes tend to come on the market during the summer months when households with children who are out of school are looking to move.

That seasonality means, based on historical trends and the fact that fall is now approaching, we can expect smaller, more affordable homes to come to the market throughout the rest of the year.

That’s great news because, as Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), states, the need for these types of homes has gone up recently:

“. . . as interest rates increased in 2022, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower.”

What Does This Mean for You?

The seasonal trend of smaller homes coming to the market in the later months of the year, coupled with builders bringing smaller, more affordable newly built homes to the market right now, is good news – especially if you’re finding it difficult to afford a home. Mikaela Arroyo, Director of the New Home Trends Institute at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says this about a potential increase in the availability of smaller homes:

“It’s not solving the affordability crisis, but it is creating opportunities for people to be able to afford an entry-level home in an area.”

Bottom Line

If a smaller, more affordable home sounds appealing to you, good news – they’re coming. To keep up with what’s available in our area, let’s connect.

Tagged With: Buying Myths, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Housing Market Updates

Gen Z: The Next Generation Is Making Moves in the Housing Market

August 28, 2023 By Tami Savage

Gen Z: The Next Generation Is Making Moves in the Housing Market

Generation Z (Gen Z) is eager to put down their own roots and achieve financial independence. As a result, they’re turning to homeownership. According to the latest Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 30% of Gen Z buyers transitioned straight from living under their parents' roofs to owning their own homes.

If you’re a member of this generation, and you’re interested in pursuing your own dream of homeownership, here’s some information you may find helpful on why and where your peers are buying.

The Reasons Gen Z Want To Become Homeowners

A recent survey by Rocket Mortgage identifies some of the top motivators driving Gen Z buyers to purchase a home:

“Of those surveyed, 34% said that starting or growing their family was their main motivation to buy a home. . . . Along with growing a family comes establishing a home base.”

Another key reason the survey says Gen Z wants to buy is because homeownership can give them more stability (20.8%). That’s because buying a home allows you to stabilize what’s typically your biggest monthly expense: your housing cost.

When you have a fixed-rate mortgage on your home, you can lock in your monthly payment for the duration of your loan, often 15 to 30 years. If you keep renting, you don’t have that same benefit, and you won’t be protected from rising housing costs.

So, if you’re ready to start a new chapter in your life or if you’re craving more stability, know that your peers feel the same way, and those motivators are why they’re turning to homeownership.

Gen Z's Next Stop: Where Are They Making Their Moves?

If those reasons have you feeling ready to buy, here’s some information on where your peers are finding their homes that could help you with your search. According to a recent Lending Tree survey, Gen Z buyers are focusing on more affordable areas to help boost their buying power and offset the challenges that come with today’s mortgage rates.

Many Gen Z buyers still want the convenience and excitement of city life, but also value the affordability, open air, and space more suburban areas offer. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, explains:

“. . . they want to live in a city, but they also want to be close to nature.”

Locating a home that offers both of those things requires expertise. Working with a trusted real estate professional can help you find a home in your budget and desired area. Your agent will know the most affordable neighborhoods to search in. They can also highlight the amenities and features that location offers and how those are aligned with your goals. They’ll also be able to walk you through how things like remote work can help you cast a broader net for your search. 

Bottom Line

If you’re a member of Gen Z and are just getting started on your homebuying journey, or if you want to learn more about the process, let’s connect. That way, you have a guide to help you find a home that fits both your lifestyle and your budget.

Tagged With: Buying Myths, Demographics, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers

Why You Need a True Expert in Today’s Housing Market

August 23, 2023 By Tami Savage

Why You Need a True Expert in Today’s Housing Market

The housing market continues to shift and change, and in a fast-moving landscape like we’re in right now, it’s more important than ever to have a trusted real estate agent on your side. Whether you’re buying your first home or selling once again, it’s mission critical to work with an expert who can guide you through each unique step of the process. 

The reality is, not all agents operate the same way. To truly make a powerful and confident decision as you buy or sell a home, you need a real estate expert who uses their knowledge of what’s really happening with home prices, housing supply, industry projections, and more to give you the best possible advice. Someone who can provide clarity and trust like that is essential to your success. Jay Thompson, Real Estate Industry Consultant, explains:

“Housing market headlines are everywhere. Many are quite sensational, ending with exclamation points or predicting impending doom for the industry. Clickbait, the sensationalizing of headlines and content, has been an issue since the dawn of the internet, and housing news is not immune to it.”

Unfortunately, when information in the media isn’t clear, it can generate a lot of fear and uncertainty for consumers. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:

“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”

But it doesn’t have to be that way. Buying a home is a big decision, and it should be one you feel confident making. You can lean on an expert to help you separate fact from fiction and get the answers you need.

The right agent can assist you in figuring out what’s going on at the national level and in your local area. They can debunk headlines using data you can trust. Experts have in-depth knowledge of the industry and can provide context, so you know how current trends compare to the normal ebbs and flows in the housing market, historical data, and more.

Then, to make sure you have the full picture, an agent can tell you if your local area is following the national trend or if they’re seeing something different in your market. Together, you can use all that information to make the best possible decision.

After all, making a move is a potentially life-changing milestone. It should be something you feel ready for and excited about. And that’s where a trusted expert comes in.

Bottom Line

If you want sound advice and trusted information about our local housing market, let’s connect.

Tagged With: Buying Myths, First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, For Sellers, Selling Myths

Why You Don’t Need To Fear the Return of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

August 22, 2023 By Tami Savage

Why You Don’t Need To Fear the Return of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

If you remember the housing crash back in 2008, you may recall just how popular adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) were back then. And after years of being virtually nonexistent, more people are once again using ARMs when buying a home. Let’s break down why that’s happening and why this isn’t cause for concern.

Why ARMs Have Gained Popularity More Recently

This graph uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to show how the percentage of adjustable-rate mortgages has increased over the past few years:

Percent of ARMs Increased Since 2021

As the graph conveys, after hovering around 3% of all mortgages in 2021, many more homeowners turned to adjustable-rate mortgages again last year. There’s a simple explanation for that increase. Last year is when mortgage rates climbed dramatically. With higher borrowing costs, some homeowners decided to take out this type of loan because traditional borrowing costs were high, and an ARM gave them a lower rate. 

Why Today’s ARMs Aren’t Like the Ones in 2008

To put things into perspective, let’s remember these aren’t like the ARMs that became popular leading up to 2008. Part of what caused the housing crash was loose lending standards. Back then, when a buyer got an ARM, banks and lenders didn’t require proof of their employment, assets, income, etc. Basically, people were getting loans that they shouldn’t have been awarded. This set many homeowners up for trouble because they couldn’t pay back the loans that they never had to qualify for in the first place.

This time around, lending standards are different. Banks and lenders learned from the crash, and now they verify income, assets, employment, and more. This means today’s buyers actually have to qualify for their loans and show they’ll be able to repay them.

Archana Pradhan, Economist at CoreLogic, explains the difference between then and now:

“Around 60% of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARM) that were originated in 2007 were low- or no-documentation loans . . . Similarly, in 2005, 29% of ARM borrowers had credit scores below 640 . . . Currently, almost all conventional loans, including both ARMs and Fixed-Rate Mortgages, require full documentation, are amortized, and are made to borrowers with credit scores above 640.”

In simple terms, Laurie Goodman at Urban Institute helps drive this point home by saying:

“Today’s Adjustable-Rate Mortgages are no riskier than other mortgage products and their lower monthly payments could increase access to homeownership for more potential buyers.”

Bottom Line

If you’re worried today’s adjustable-rate mortgages are like the ones from the housing crash, rest assured, things are different this time.

And, if you’re a first-time homebuyer and you’d like to learn more about lending options that could help you overcome today’s affordability challenges, reach out to a trusted lender.

Tagged With: Buying Myths, For Buyers, Interest Rates

Why Median Home Sales Price Is Confusing Right Now

August 21, 2023 By Tami Savage

Why Median Home Sales Price Is Confusing Right Now

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is set to release its most recent Existing Home Sales (EHS) report tomorrow. This monthly release provides information on the volume of sales and price trends for homes that have previously been owned. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may seem a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and reading the blogs saying home prices have hit the bottom and have since rebounded.

So, why would this say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each one. NAR reports on the median home sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ.

The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median sales prices like this:

“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”

Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means:

“Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.”

The Challenge with the Median Home Sales Price Today

As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median home sales price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again.

Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this:

“Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.”

To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents.

How Median Price Works

In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.

That’s why using the median home sales price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values may be confusing right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable.

That’s why a greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now – and that’s causing the median home sales price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value. 

When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median home sales price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates.

Bottom Line

For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, let’s connect.

Tagged With: Buying Myths, For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, Pricing, Selling Myths

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Worried about a housing crash like 2008? New flash Worried about a housing crash like 2008? New flash: We're not on that path! 🏡

𝐋𝐨𝐰 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲: Not enough homes to go around
𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭: Builders are playing catch-up
𝐅𝐞𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬: Thanks to tighter lending standards

No crash in sight. Got questions? DM me! 💌

More info? Here's the article: https://tamisavage.com/why-todays-housing-inventory-shows-a-crash-isnt-on-the-horizon/
📆 Only a Few Days Left in September, Y'all! Tim 📆 Only a Few Days Left in September, Y'all! Time to Spruce Up the Home! 🏡🍂
🔥 Fire Pit Ready: Clean it, check it, stock it. Hello, cozy nights!
🌱 Garden Game: Trim, plant, and mulch. Your garden will thank you!
❄️ Heating 101: Schedule a pro check-up. No one likes a winter surprise.
🚪 Garage Love: A little maintenance goes a long way.
Got questions? DM me, let's make your home fall-fabulous!
🏡 𝐈𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐤𝐲 𝐅𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬? Nope!
Spring is usually go-time for homebuying, but don't stress if you see prices leveling off. That's the natural cycle, baby!

👋 Questions? DM me, let's make sense of it together!

🔗 https://tamisavage.com/the-return-of-normal-seasonality-for-home-price-appreciation/
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Competition is fierce, but I've got your back! Get pre-approved to stand out from the crowd.

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Work from your couch? That's great news when you're in the home-buying game! 🛋️💼
Expand your horizons and find a space that not only says 'home' but also screams 'perfect workspace.' 🌠
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Full Infographic: https://tamisavage.com/how-remote-work-helps-with-your-house-hunt-infographic/
🏡 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞, 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐑𝐮𝐥𝐞𝐬! 📜
Owning a home is more than just an investment or dollars & cents; it's a life upgrade!

🎨 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞, 𝐂𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞, & 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐲 🛠️
You wanna paint that living room lime green? Go for it!
Want a glass front door instead of solid wood? Change it!
Want to knock down a wall or add a home office? You can!

👪 𝐅𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭
A home is the perfect place to watch your kids grow and make lasting memories. More importantly, it adds stability!

🏘️ 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
Neighbors aren't just the folks next door; they're your support system.

Ready to make the move and enrich your life? Holler at me anytime! 📲

For more Insights: https://tamisavage.com/the-many-non-financial-benefits-of-homeownership/
💼 𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤 = 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐇𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬! 🏡 𝐋𝐞𝐭'𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐭𝐬!

Remote work isn't just about Zoom calls in PJs. It's an opportunity to change your entire home search game!

💡 𝐅𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 = 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
Think bigger yards, extra rooms, and maybe even a lower cost of living! 🎉

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🏡 Wondering if Now’s the Right Time to Sell? 🏡 Wondering if Now’s the Right Time to Sell? Your Home Equity Might Just Be Your Ace! 🏡

Equity = Your Home's Value - What You Owe. 🤑 And here's the kicker—nearly 70% of homeowners are sitting pretty with significant equity. So if you've been holding off selling due to mortgage rates, this could be your game-changer!

📲 Got questions about your home equity? Don’t hesitate to call, text, or email me anytime!

👉 Want the full scoop? Check out my latest article on how your home equity can offset affordability challenges: https://tamisavage.com/your-home-equity-can-offset-affordability-challenges/
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The Summer Guides for Buying and Selling a Home are Here.

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The Spring Guides for Buying and Selling a Home Are Here
How you price your house will make a big difference to not only your bottom line, but to how quickly it could sell. Let’s connect to figure out the ideal price for your house.
Price Your House Right When You Sell
Getting pre-approved is an important first step toward buying a home. Let’s connect so you have the right tools to buy a home in today’s market.

Data Source:
 • https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/what-it-takes-to-be-preapproved-for-a-mortgage-and-why-it-matters/
The Importance of Pre-Approval
There are many reasons why it’s easy to fall in love with homeownership. If you’re ready to find the home of your dreams, let’s connect.
Why It's Easy To Fall in Love with Homeownership
You can have the home you want without waiting for the perfect home to come onto the market.

SOURCE for Data in Video: 
 • https://themreport.com/news/data/08-29-2022/homebuyers-compromise
Create Your Perfect Home by Perfecting It After You Purchase
Before buying a home, it’s a good idea to know why homeownership is important to you. Let’s connect to discuss your why and prioritize your next steps.

SOURCE for Data in Video: 
 • https://himaxwell.com/resources/ebooks-white-papers/1h-2022-millennial-genz-borrower-sentiment-report/#downloadnow
Top Reasons Why You May Want To Buy a Home
There’s a lot going on in the housing market right now. 

You can get the latest digital copy from my website post: https://tamisavage.com/the-winter-guides-for-buying-or-selling-a-home-are-here/
The Winter Guides for Buying or Selling a Home Are Here
There’s good reason to make your move right now if you’re ready to sell. Let’s connect to talk about the benefits of selling your house this season.
5 Reasons To Sell Your House This Winter
Rents have risen dramatically for over three decades. Let’s connect so you can have expert advice on your side to help you reach your homeownership goals.

Data Source: 
 • http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf
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DISCLAIMER: The information contained, and the opinions expressed, on this site are NOT intended to be construed as legal or financial advice. Tami Savage does NOT guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as legal or financial advice. You should ALWAYS conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. Tami Savage will NOT be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.