Tami Savage, Realtor

Your Key to a New Lifestyle

  • Search for Homes
  • Blog
  • About
  • Contact
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently?

June 24, 2020 By Tami Savage

Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently?

The New York Times recently ran an article regarding unemployment titled: Don’t Cheer Too Soon. Keep an Eye on the Core Jobless Rate. The piece suggests we should look at unemployment numbers somewhat differently. The author of the article, Jed Kolko, is a well-respected economist who is currently the Chief Economist at Indeed, the world’s largest online jobs site. Previously, he was Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, the online real estate site.

Kolko suggests “the coronavirus pandemic has broken most economic charts and models, and all the numbers we regularly watch need a closer look.” He goes on to explain that the decline in the unemployment number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier this month was driven by a drop in temporary layoffs. If we strip those out, we’re left with what Kolko calls the core unemployment rate. Many economists have struggled with how to deal with the vast number of temporary layoffs, as a complete shutdown of the economy has never happened before. As the article states, in the last unemployment report:

“73 percent of all unemployed people said they were temporarily unemployed, which means they had a return-to-work date or they expected to return to work in six months. Before the pandemic, temporary unemployment was never more than one-quarter of total unemployment.”

The core unemployment rate handles this issue and also deals with another concern economists have discussed for years: the exclusion of the marginally attached. These are people who are available and want to work, but count as out of the labor force rather than unemployed because they haven’t searched for work in the past four weeks.

Kolko’s core rate does three things:

  1. Takes out temporary unemployment
  2. Retains the rest of the standard unemployment definition: permanent job losers, job leavers, and people returning to or entering the labor force
  3. Adds in the marginally attached

Removing the temporarily unemployed makes sense according to the article:

“Initial pandemic relief efforts focused on money for people to manage a temporary loss of income and funds to keep businesses afloat until they could bring their workers back. The hope and the goal is for the temporarily unemployed to return to their old jobs, rather than have them lose their jobs and have to search for new ones when jobs have become scarcer.”

The Bad News and the Good News

Clearly, the adjustments Kolko makes dramatically impact the way we look at unemployment. The bad news is, using his core rate, there was an increase in unemployment from April to May. The conventional rate reported by the BLS showed a decrease in unemployment.

The good news is that the core rate compares more favorably to the last recession in 2008. Here’s the breakdown:

Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of how the economy is doing. Heading into a highly contested election this November, the BLS report releasing next week will be scrutinized like no other by members on both sides of the aisle. Mr. Kolko’s take is just one additional way to evaluate how unemployment is impacting American families.

Tagged With: For Buyers, For Sellers

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Buying a Home. Send me this eGuide.

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Selling Your House. Send me this eGuide.

Tags

Baby Boomers Buying Myths Community Demographics Distressed Properties Down Payments Events First Time Home Buyers Forbearances For Buyers Foreclosures For Sale By Owners For Sellers FSBOs Generation X Generation Z Gen Z Holidays Home Design Home Trends Housing Market Updates Infographics Interest Rates Interview Investors Luxury Luxury Home Luxury Market Millennials Move-Up Buyers moving New Construction Pricing relocation Remodel Rent vs Buy Report Reviews Selling Myths Senior Market Short Sales SOLD Tax Refund Veterans Video

About Me

I help homeowners sell their existing home and shift into a home more suitable to their needs in the North Metro Atlanta area (specifically around Cumming, Canton, & Milton). Read More…

Let’s Connect

770-744-2524‬ or
(888) 959-9461 x2543

 

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
If you're following the news, you might be wondering what could happen to the housing market if there's a recession. Let's connect to discuss why history shows a recession doesn't equal a housing crisis.

SOURCES: 
• https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/corelogic-hpi-posted-record-year-over-year-growth-in-2021/
• https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/housing-recessions-and-recoveries/
• https://www.thebalance.com/the-history-of-recessions-in-the-united-states-3306011
A Recession Doesn't Equal a Housing Crisis
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_OdOSl6RHDig
Buyers already know higher mortgage rates can increase their monthly payment.

But sellers might be surprised to learn rising rates could impact them, as well.

Watch the video to find out what you should consider if you’ve been waiting to sell your home.

Then contact us today to schedule a free consultation. Whether you want to buy or sell this year, act fast…before rates rise even further!

📲 770-744-2524
☎️ 888-959-9461 x2543
📩  tami@tamisavage.com
How Will Rising Mortgage Rates Impact Home Sellers?
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_bDqmTWZ5YzM
Thinking of Buying or Selling a Home?  The Summer Buyer and Seller Guides are Here.
Go here to request:  https://tamisavage.com/new-summer-2022-buyer-and-seller-guides-are-here/
Thinking of Buying or Selling a Home: The Summer Buyer and Seller Guides are here!!! (Summer 2022)
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_CptLaL_muMQ
Want to better understand how buying a home could be a great investment for you? Let’s connect today.

SOURCE:
• https://news.gallup.com/poll/392330/record-low-say-good-time-buy-house.aspx
More Americans Choose Real Estate as the Best Long Term Investment
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_VznC8C5QzU4
Thinking of Moving Up This Summer?

Here are some features you may want on your wishlist:
• Outdoor entertaining space
• A swimming pool to make a splash
• A quiet place to relax and unwind

Let's connect so you can sell your house and find the home of your dreams.
Thinking of Moving Up This Summer
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_UA7yETbMfBg
If you're thinking of buying or selling a home this year, it's important to know where the market is headed and what that means for you. Let's connect so you have the latest expert insights to help plan your next move.

SOURCES: 
• https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-apr-2022.pdf
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-q2-2022-us-economic-outlook-04-27-2022.pdf
• https://www.fanniemae.com/media/43346/display
• https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20220418-quarterly-forecast-purchase-market-will-remain-solid-even-mortgage-rates-rise
• https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
• https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/
• https://www.zelmanassociates.com/
• https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pandemic-boom-in-home-sales-is-over-mortgage-rates-soar-to-highest-level-since-2009-as-the-fed-pressures-the-housing-market-11651760108
What's on the Horizon for the Housing Market in the Second Half of 2022?
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_CUfujHdh4lI
There are a number of good reasons you may want to sell your house right now. Let's connect so you have an expert on your side to help you during the process.

SOURCES: 
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/why-time-is-right-sell-home-us-2022-03-29/ https://www.businessinsider.com/signs-you-should-sell-your-home-2019-7#lifestyle-shifts-are-compelling-you-to-rethink-your-living-space-2
https://blog.firstam.com/economics/why-the-2022-housing-market-is-very-2019
Top Signs Its Time To Sell According to Experts
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_RceP-LLP230
More sellers are expected to list their houses in the months ahead. Let's connect so you have a trusted real estate advisor on your side and can act when your dream home comes to market.

SOURCES: 
https://news.move.com/2022-04-06-New-Realtor-com-R-Survey-Finds-64-of-2022-Sellers-Plan-to-List-by-Summers-End
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-03-2022-overview-2022-04-20.pdf
Homebuyers You May Have More Options
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_RC4-_HXbNuQ
Right now, the average home for sale is getting more offers than in recent years. Let's connect so we can discuss how you can win when you make a move in today's housing market.

SOURCE: 
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2022-03-realtors-confidence-index-04-20-2022.pdf
Buyers Are Lining Up To Make an Offer in Todays Housing Market
YouTube Video UCje-ynLSmvEYv1nXUpNTiMw_B5vLzgjs3Gc
Load More... Subscribe

Calculate Mortgage Payments

Below is a mortgage calculator you may use to help give you an estimate on your monthly payment and other details.

Once calculated, next to the monthly payment on the far right is a small graphic you can click on to see the payment schedule.

Calculate Mortgage Payments

www.mlcalc.com

eXp Realty

Realtor Stellar MLS Equal Opportunity Housing

Copyright © 2019+ Tami Savage LLC. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy

DISCLAIMER: The information contained, and the opinions expressed, on this site are NOT intended to be construed as investment advice. Tami Savage LLC does NOT guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should ALWAYS conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Tami Savage LLC will NOT be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.