Tami Savage, Realtor

Your Key to a New Lifestyle

  • Search for Homes
  • Blog
  • About
  • Contact
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

Latest Unemployment Report: Great News…for the Most Part

July 6, 2020 By Tami Savage

Latest Unemployment Report: Great News…for the Most Part

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest Employment Situation Summary last Thursday, and it again beat analysts’ expectations in a big way. The consensus was for 3,074,000 jobs to be added in June. The report revealed that 4,800,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% last month. Again, excellent news as the unemployment rate fell for the second consecutive month. However, there’s still a long way to go before the economy fully recovers as 17.8 million Americans remain unemployed.

Here are two interesting insights on the report:

What about a supposed misclassification?

The BLS addressed this at length in a blog post last week, and concluded by saying:

“Regardless of the assumptions we might make about misclassification, the trend in the unemployment rate over the period in question is the same; the rate increased in March & April and eased in May.”

They specifically noted the issue in the latest report by explaining that if they adjusted the rate for the potential miscalculation, it would increase from 11.1% to 12.1% (which is lower than the adjusted rate of 16.4% last month). They went on to say:

“However, this represents the upper bound of our estimate of misclassification and probably overstates the size of the misclassification error.”

Does the shutdown of parts of the economy skew the unemployment numbers?

Because the uniqueness of 2020 impacts the employment situation in so many ways, each jobs report is now examined with a microscope to make sure the headlines generated by the report accurately convey what’s happening in the job market.

One such analysis is done by Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Indeed. He believes the extraordinary number of people in the “temporary” unemployed category confuses the broader issue of how many people have permanently lost their job. He adjusts for this when calculating his “core unemployment rate” (which subtracts temporary layoffs and adds unemployed who didn’t search for a job recently).

The bad news is that his analysis reveals that the number of permanently unemployed is still rising (from 4.6% in April to 5.9% last month). The good news, however, is when you use his methodology to look back at the Great Recession, today’s “core unemployment rate” is significantly lower (5.9% versus 10.5% in April 2010).

Bottom Line

Last week’s jobs report was much better than most expected. However, we should remain cautious in our optimism. As the Wall Street Journal explained in their analysis of the jobs report:

“U.S. job growth surged last month, underscoring the economy’s capacity for a quick rebound if businesses continue to reopen and consumers regain confidence. A recent coronavirus spike, however, could undermine trends captured in the latest jobs report.”

Tagged With: For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Buying a Home. Send me this eGuide.

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Selling Your House. Send me this eGuide.

A Guide to Buying Your First Home. Send me this eGuide.

Tags

Baby Boomers Buying Myths Community Demographics Distressed Properties Down Payments First Time Home Buyers Forbearances For Buyers Foreclosures For Sale By Owners For Sellers FSBOs Garden Generation X Generation Z Gen X Gen Z Holidays Home Home Trends Housing Market Updates Infographics Interest Rates Interview Investors Lifestyle Luxury Market Millennials Move-Up Buyers moving New Construction Pricing relocation Remodel Rent vs Buy Report Reviews Selling Myths Senior Market Short Sales SOLD Tax Refund Veterans Video

About Me

I help homeowners sell their existing home and shift into a home more suitable to their needs in the North Metro Atlanta area (specifically around Cumming, Canton, & Milton). Read More…

Let’s Connect

770-744-2524‬ or
(888) 959-9461 x2543

Digitial Business Card

 

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

Calculate Mortgage Payments

Below is a mortgage calculator you may use to help give you an estimate on your monthly payment and other details.

Once calculated, next to the monthly payment on the far right is a small graphic you can click on to see the payment schedule.

Calculate Mortgage Payments

www.mlcalc.com
Copyright © 2019+ Tami Savage LLC. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy

DISCLAIMER: The information contained, and the opinions expressed, on this site are NOT intended to be construed as legal or financial advice. Tami Savage does NOT guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as legal or financial advice. You should ALWAYS conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. Tami Savage will NOT be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.