Tami Savage, Realtor

Your Key to a New Lifestyle

  • Search for Homes
  • Blog
  • About
  • Contact
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

July 20, 2021 By Tami Savage

3 Charts That Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

With home prices continuing to deliver double-digit increases, some are concerned we’re in a housing bubble like the one in 2006. However, a closer look at the market data indicates this is nothing like 2006 for three major reasons.

1. The housing market isn’t driven by risky mortgage loans.

Back in 2006, nearly everyone could qualify for a loan. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association is an indicator of the availability of mortgage money. The higher the index, the easier it is to obtain a mortgage. The MCAI more than doubled from 2004 (378) to 2006 (869). Today, the index stands at 130. As an example of the difference between today and 2006, let’s look at the volume of mortgages that originated when a buyer had less than a 620 credit score.

Mortgage Originations with less than 620 FICO Score. Source: Fed

Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, reiterates this point:

“There are marked differences in today’s run up in prices compared to 2005, which was a bubble fueled by risky loans and lenient underwriting. Today, loans with high-risk features are absent and mortgage underwriting is prudent.”

2. Homeowners aren’t using their homes as ATMs this time.

During the housing bubble, as prices skyrocketed, people were refinancing their homes and pulling out large sums of cash. As prices began to fall, that caused many to spiral into a negative equity situation (where their mortgage was higher than the value of the house).

Today, homeowners are letting their equity build. Tappable equity is the amount available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% combined loan-to-value ratio (thus still leaving them with at least 20% equity). In 2006, that number was $4.6 billion. Today, that number stands at over $8 billion.

Yet, the percentage of cash-out refinances (where the homeowner takes out at least 5% more than their original mortgage amount) is half of what it was in 2006.

Cash-Out Refinances as a Percentage of All Mortgages. Source: Freddie Mac

3. This time, it’s simply a matter of supply and demand.

FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out) dominated the housing market leading up to the 2006 housing bubble and drove up buyer demand. Back then, housing supply more than kept up as many homeowners put their houses on the market, as evidenced by the over seven months’ supply of existing housing inventory available for sale in 2006. Today, that number is barely two months.

Builders also overbuilt during the bubble but pulled back significantly over the next decade. Sam Khater, VP and Chief Economist, Economic & Housing Research at Freddie Mac, explains that pullback is the major factor in the lack of available inventory today:

“The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes.”

Here’s a chart that quantifies Khater’s remarks:

Today, there are simply not enough homes to keep up with current demand.

Bottom Line

This market is nothing like the run-up to 2006. Bill McBride, the author of the prestigious Calculated Risk blog, predicted the last housing bubble and crash. This is what he has to say about today’s housing market:

“It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while because inventory is so low.”

Tagged With: For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, New Construction, Pricing

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Buying a Home. Send me this eGuide.

Free eGuide. Things to Consider When Selling Your House. Send me this eGuide.

A Guide to Buying Your First Home. Send me this eGuide.

Tags

Baby Boomers Buying Myths Community Demographics Distressed Properties Down Payments Events First Time Home Buyers Forbearances For Buyers Foreclosures For Sale By Owners For Sellers FSBOs Generation X Generation Z Gen X Gen Z Holidays Home Design Home Trends Housing Market Updates Infographics Interest Rates Interview Investors Lifestyle Luxury Market Millennials Move-Up Buyers moving New Construction Pricing relocation Remodel Rent vs Buy Report Reviews Selling Myths Senior Market Short Sales SOLD Tax Refund Veterans Video

About Me

I help homeowners sell their existing home and shift into a home more suitable to their needs in the North Metro Atlanta area (specifically around Cumming, Canton, & Milton). Read More…

Let’s Connect

770-744-2524‬ or
(888) 959-9461 x2543

Digitial Business Card

 

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube

Calculate Mortgage Payments

Below is a mortgage calculator you may use to help give you an estimate on your monthly payment and other details.

Once calculated, next to the monthly payment on the far right is a small graphic you can click on to see the payment schedule.

Calculate Mortgage Payments

www.mlcalc.com
Copyright © 2019+ Tami Savage LLC. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy

DISCLAIMER: The information contained, and the opinions expressed, on this site are NOT intended to be construed as legal or financial advice. Tami Savage does NOT guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as legal or financial advice. You should ALWAYS conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. Tami Savage will NOT be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.